Although the photonic integration approach hasn't achieved the success it initially enjoyed, silicon photonics has become the dominant force in the optical transceiver ecosystem, according to LightCounting. As the chart above illustrates, the use of silicon photonics is expected to steadily increase over the next few years, reaching nearly half the market share.
Emerging applications of silicon photonics should help drive this trend, and LightCounting points to linear-drive pluggable optics and co-packaged optics as a pair of potential catalysts. Market researchers acknowledge that not all of these optical modules will utilize silicon photonics, but they assert that "SiP is the current leader and also the ideal integration platform for new materials." This status is especially strong for linear-drive pluggables, as alternatives such as directly modulated GaAs lasers (DML) and electroabsorption-modulated InP lasers (EML) are more "nonlinear" devices.
The report includes a new forecast for linear drive optics and bundled packages by range and data rate. LightCounting believes that while the dominance of conventional plug-ins will not be threatened for at least the next five years, new competitors will account for more than 30% of all 800G and 1.6T ports deployed in 2026-2028, according to the report.
