The internet is made up of thousands of public and private networks around the world. And since it came into being in 1984, more than 4.7 zettabytes of IP traffic have crossed it. That's the equivalent of every movie ever made crossing global IP networks in less than a minute. However, this is just the beginning. According to the latest Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) annual report, more traffic will cross global networks in 2022 than in all the 'years of the Internet' combined up to the end of 2016. In other words, more traffic will be created in 2022 than in the 32 years since the Internet began.
Where will this traffic come from? From all of us, from our devices, and from how we use the internet. By 2022, 60% of the world's population will be internet users. More than 28 billion devices and connections will be online. And video will account for 82% of all IP traffic. In Spain, 74% of the population will be internet users (71% in 2017), there will be 344.1 million connected devices (7.4 per person), up from 202 million in 2017 (4.4 per capita), and video will represent 79% of IP traffic (67% in 2017).
“The size and complexity of the Internet continue to grow in ways we could never have imagined. Since we began the VNI Report in 2005, traffic has increased 56-fold, accumulating 36% year-over-year growth as more people, devices, and applications access IP networks,” says Jonathan Davidson, Senior Vice President and General Manager of Service Providers at Cisco.
“Global service providers are focusing on transforming their networks to better manage and direct traffic, while delivering premium experiences. The ongoing research that informs the Report helps us gain and share valuable insights into the technology and architectural transitions our customers need to make to succeed,” it continues.
Key forecasts for 2022
Cisco VNI analyzes the impact that users, devices, and other trends will have on global IP networks over a five-year period. From 2017 to 2022, Cisco forecasts:
1. Global IP traffic will more than triple
• Global IP traffic will reach 396 Exabytes per month in 2022 (122 Exabytes per month in 2017), which represents an annual traffic of 4.8 Zettabytes for 2022. In Spain, IP traffic will triple between 2017 and 2022 (an annual growth rate of 25%), reaching 4.4 Exabytes per month in 2022 (1.4 Exabytes per month in 2017) or 52.8 Exabytes per year in 2022 (the equivalent in Gigabytes of all the movies produced in the world throughout history crossing Spanish IP networks every hour), from the 17.4 Exabytes per year recorded in 2017.
• In 2022, peak internet traffic will be six times higher than average. Peak internet traffic will increase almost fivefold (37% year-on-year increase) from 2017 to 2022, reaching 7.2 petabytes per second by 2022. In comparison, average internet traffic will increase almost fourfold (30% year-on-year increase) during the same period, reaching 1 petabyte in 2022. In Spain, peak internet traffic will increase 3.4 times between 2017 and 2022 (34% year-on-year increase), reaching 81 terabytes per second in 2022. In comparison, average internet traffic will increase 3.2 times during the same period (26% year-on-year increase), reaching 12 terabytes per second in 2022.
2. Global Internet users will make up 60% of the world's population
• There will be 4.8 billion internet users in 2022, up from 3.4 billion in 2017 (45% of the world's population). In Spain, 74% of the population (34 million) will be internet users (33 million in 2017, 71% of the population).
3. The number of connected devices globally will reach 28.5 billion
• In 2022 there will be 28.5 billion fixed and mobile personal connections and devices (18 billion in 2017), which is equivalent to 3.6 connections/connected devices per person (2.4 in 2017). In Spain there will be 344.1 million connected devices (7.4 per person); 202 million in 2017 (4.4 per capita).
• More than half of all global devices and connections will be Machine-to-Machine (M2M) in 2022, up from 34% in 2017. In total, there will be 14.6 billion connections from smart TVs, accessories, devices, etc., up from 6.1 billion in 2017. In Spain, M2M connections will reach 223.2 million in 2022 (98.4 million in 2017), increasing at a year-on-year rate of 17.8% and representing 65% of total connections (49% in 2017).
4. The average speed of fixed and mobile broadband and Wi-Fi will at least double
• Globally, the average fixed broadband speed will almost double between 2017 and 2022, from 39 Mbps to 75.4 Mbps. In Spain, the average fixed broadband speed will increase 2.3 times between 2017 and 2022, from 50.3 Mbps to 115.2 Mbps.
• The average speed of Wi-Fi connections will more than double, from 24.4 Mbps to 54 Mbps. In Spain, the average speed of Wi-Fi connections will increase 3.9 times between 2017 and 2022, from 24.4 Mbps to 96 Mbps.
• The average mobile broadband speed will more than triple, from 8.7 Mbps to 28.5 Mbps. In Spain, the average mobile broadband speed will quadruple between 2017 and 2022, reaching 67 Mbps.
5. Video, games and multimedia will generate more than 85% of all traffic
• Video traffic will quadruple by 2022, accounting for 82% of total IP traffic, up from 75% in 2017. In Spain, video traffic will quadruple between 2017 and 2022 (an annual increase of 29%), representing 79% of total IP traffic (67% in 2017).
• Traffic generated by games will increase ninefold between 2017 and 2022, representing 4% of total IP traffic in 2022. In Spain, traffic generated by games will increase tenfold between 2017 and 2022 (an annual increase of 58%), representing 6% of total IP traffic in 2022 (2% in 2017).
• Traffic from virtual and augmented reality technologies used by consumers and businesses will grow exponentially. In 2022, it will reach 4 Exabytes per month, up from 0.33 Exabytes per month in 2017.
IP traffic growth by region (2017-2022)
• Asia-Pacific: 173 Exabytes per month in 2022 (a quadruple increase; 32% year-over-year increase).
• North America: 108 Exabytes per month in 2022 (a triple increase; 21% year-over-year increase).
• Western Europe: 50 Exabytes per month in 2022 (a triple increase; 22% year-over-year increase).
• Central and Eastern Europe: 25 Exabytes per month in 2022 (a triple increase; 26% year-over-year increase).
• Middle East and Africa: 21 Exabytes per month in 2022 (a sixfold increase; 41% year-over-year increase).
• Latin America: 19 Exabytes per month in 2022 (a triple increase; 21% year-over-year increase).
Cisco VNI Report Methodology:
The Cisco VNI Report is based on real-world data and analysis of fixed and mobile data usage compiled by independent analysts, which Cisco uses to make its own estimates of global IP traffic and service adoption. A detailed description of the methodology used can be found in the full report. The full Cisco VNI Report includes global, regional, and national projections and trends associated with fixed and mobile networks. It also includes additional information and analysis on IoT by vertical sector, IPv6 adoption, traffic growth by application, traffic patterns, implications of the cord-cutting trend, Wi-Fi access points, broadband network performance, and network security challenges.
