IDTechEx has been researching 5G-related topics for many years and has published its latest market research report on 5G, "5G Technology, Market and Forecast 2022-2032." This market research and business intelligence report investigates the key technical, industry, and regional aspects impacting the rapidly expanding 5G market.
Which frequency band is leading the way: sub-6 GHz or mmWave? What is the deployment outlook in 5 key regions?
The term 5G refers to a set of enhanced and updated mobile communication technologies, as well as new features derived from new frequency bands: 3.5–7 GHz (also known as sub-6 GHz) or >24 GHz (also known as mmWave), and greater bandwidths. This allows it to address multiple challenges in many sectors that previous generations could not. According to research by IDTechEx, 56% of commercial 5G services worldwide operate in the sub-6 GHz range. Almost all base stations in the sub-6 GHz spectrum are located in cities. Figure 1 illustrates the network deployment strategy used by telecom operators to build their 5G networks, showing that the higher frequency bands will be heavily used in densely populated regions.
Figure 1: 5G network deployment strategy, taken from the report "5G Technology, Market and Forecasts 2022-2032" by IDTechEx.
Each country/region has its own spectrum release schedule. While most countries initially released sub-6 GHz spectrum, there are some exceptions. The US regulatory agency, for example, first released millimeter wave spectrum and did not release its sub-6 GHz band until early 2021. Consequently, 5G deployment forecasts and implementation strategies will differ from country to country. IDTechEx's "5G Technology, Market and Forecasts 2022-2032" report includes a detailed regional analysis of the 5G deployment status and future roadmap in five key regions: the United States, China, Japan, South Korea, and Europe. This analysis includes government strategy, funding, and the 5G deployment schedule and roadmap of major national telecom operators, as well as revenue analysis.
Two essential technologies for the future development of 5G: mmWave and Open RAN (Open Radio Access Network)
Millimeter waves, previously used exclusively for military, satellite, and automotive radar communications, have recently been introduced into the frequency pool for mobile communications, enabling peak data throughput of 20 Gbps with ultra-low latency of 1 ms. Such high frequencies necessitate the development of new materials and device designs. For example, millimeter wave devices require low-loss materials with minimal dielectric constant and tanning loss, as well as advanced packaging solutions, to prevent excessive transmission loss. Due to the short wavelength of mmWave communications, devices are becoming increasingly compact and integrated, making power and thermal management even more critical. In this report, IDTechEx assesses the technical challenges and explores trends and innovations in both 5G materials and design to overcome these bottlenecks. In addition, the report also provides an overview of the 5G millimeter wave sector, a review of the main players, a supply chain analysis, and a look at the vertical applications enabled by millimeter wave technology.
Figure 2: Commercial/pre-commercial 5G services by frequency (2021), from the report "5G Technology, Market and Forecasts 2022-2032" by IDTechEx.
The deployment of 5G infrastructure is critical to enabling widespread 5G adoption. Legacy telecom system providers, such as Huawei, Ericsson, and Nokia, hold a significant share of the 5G infrastructure market, according to IDTechEx, with Huawei dominating at 36% in 2020, followed by Ericsson at 27%
Telecom operators are driving the development of open RAN (i.e., networks based on disaggregated RAN components with standardized interoperability, including the use of non-proprietary white-box hardware, open-source software from different vendors, and open interfaces) to eliminate the proprietary nature of RAN systems, diversify the supply chain of vendors in the telecom industry, foster greater innovation, reduce the cost of RAN deployment (remember that 5G deployment costs are higher than 4G), and lower operating costs. Some major telecom operators already launched small-scale Open RAN 5G networks in mid-2021. Many more have drawn up plans to deploy 5G networks in the future using Open RAN technology. How might open RAN disrupt the 5G infrastructure market and influence the overall dynamics of the supply chain? Who are the key players in the Open RAN field? What could be the potential business model for Open RAN? Is Open RAN cheaper than legacy systems? What are the attitudes and strategies of legacy system vendors regarding Open RAN? What challenges remain for Open RAN? The IDTechEx report analyzes all these questions in detail, helping readers understand the future trends in the 5G infrastructure market.
5G Market Outlook:
The 5G market is poised for takeoff. By the end of 2032, consumer mobile services are projected to generate $800 billion in revenue, and 5G macroinfrastructure markets are expected to expand seven times faster than in 2020, according to IDTechEx. The forecast is based on extensive analysis of primary and secondary data, combined with careful consideration of market drivers, constraints, and the activities of key players. The report provides a historical deployment figure (2019-2021) and a ten-year forecast (2022-2032) for different segments, including 5G mobile revenue, subscriptions and infrastructure based in five global regions (USA, China, Korea and Japan, Europe and others), global 5G mobile shipments, global 5G fixed wireless access revenue and customer-promised equipment (CPE) shipments, and critical 5G components such as power amplifiers.
