1. The race for global dominance in low-power wide area network (LPWA) technologies will be limited to narrowband IoT (NB-IoT) and LoRa.2.
The most important M2M sector in 2016 will be connected cars; the number of connected vehicles will increase to more than 150 million, with the largest operators reaping the benefits.
3. Google will decisively intervene in the communications services market with Android N: it will natively support RCS (Rich Communications Suite) services and simultaneously open the native dialer phone sector to third parties.
4. Operators will be expanding service reach to non-SIM devices such as tablets and watches. They will also integrate real-time features into IoT initiatives, such as smart homes and connected cars.
5. The proportion of mobile operators offering fixed broadband services will rise to over 50% worldwide in 2016.
6. Average monthly household data consumption will exceed 100 GB in developed markets in 2016.
7. Operators and equipment providers will increase the adoption rate of LTE-A to enable mobile broadband speeds above 500 Mbps and support the transition to 5G.
8. Communications service providers (CSPs) will prioritize short-term profits over new service delivery opportunities. As a result, network virtualization (NFV) spending will nearly double in 2016, surpassing spending on software-defined networking (SDN) to account for over 20% of the $9.5 billion software-controlled networking market.
9. Network virtualization technology will enable the distribution of content delivery elements much closer to the mobile edge to improve the customer experience, even as video traffic grows, as evidenced at least by the high-profile commercial deployment of mobile edge computing.
10. Conversions from CSPs to digital service providers (DSPs) will increase in 2016 and will require stronger relationships with digital content providers, including video and music distributors.
Analysys Mason's TMT predictions are based on primary research conducted worldwide and supported by expert analysis. They stem from research focused on five key long-term themes for communications service providers:
• Digital Economy and IoT
• The Future of Communications
• Convergence
• Network Innovation
• Digital Operating Models.
Notes
1. The predictions are not in order of importance; they are simply a list of the top ten predictions.
2. Analysys Mason has excluded LTE Machine-Type Communications (MTC) from this discussion because LTE-MTC is believed to fit a different market need and is closer to a replacement for 2G's very low-bandwidth networks.
