In Spain, IP traffic will triple during this period, reaching 37 Exabytes annually in 2021 - the equivalent in Gigabytes of all the movies produced in the world throughout history crossing Spanish IP networks every two hours - from the 12 Exabytes annually recorded in 2016 (an annual growth of 23%).
This is according to the twelfth edition of the Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Forecast and Service Adoption 2016-2021 annual report, which highlights the following as the main factors driving this evolution:
• More Internet users. – In 2021 there will be 4.6 billion Internet users (58% of the projected world population of 7.8 billion according to the UN), up from 3.3 billion in 2016 (44% of the world's population). In Spain, there will be 36.3 million Internet users in 2021 (79% of the population), up from 33.5 million in 2016 (73% of the population).
• More connected devices. – In 2021, there will be 27.1 billion connected devices (3 per person on the planet), compared to 17.1 billion in 2016 (2 devices per person), including Machine-to-Machine (M2M) connections. In Spain, there will be 345 million connected devices in 2021 (7 connections per person), up from 196 million in 2016 (4 connections per person).
• Increase in M2M connections. – M2M connections will account for more than half of all connections globally and generate 5% of total IP traffic in 2021. Advancements in Internet of Things (IoT) segments such as connected home, connected transport/smart vehicles, connected health, and other next-generation M2M services are driving this exponential growth, increasing almost 2.4 times from 5.8 billion in 2016 to a projected 13.7 billion in 2021.
With the proliferation of connected applications such as health monitors, medication dispensers, and early assistance devices, the connected health segment will be the fastest growing (30% year-over-year increase), followed by connected transport and connected city applications (29% each) globally.
In Spain, M2M connections will reach 223 million in 2021 (95 million in 2016), representing 65% of the total (49% in 2016) and 8% of total IP traffic in 2021 (2% in 2016).
• Increased video traffic. – Video will continue to dominate IP traffic, representing 82% in 2021 (79% in Spain), up from 73% (64% in Spain) in 2016. Globally, there will be almost 1.9 billion internet video users (excluding mobile-only users) in 2021, up from 1.4 billion in 2016. In 2021, 3 trillion minutes of video will be consumed online each month globally, which is equivalent to five million years of video per month or one million minutes of video every second. In Spain, video will represent 77% of all internet traffic in 2021 (60% in 2016), and 46 million minutes of video will be consumed online each month in 2021.
Live video streaming on the internet will increase fifteenfold, reaching 13% of all internet video traffic in 2021 (80% of total internet traffic). This represents greater use of streaming TV applications and personal video streaming on social media. While live video streaming will account for the largest share of traffic in the entertainment segment, virtual reality and augmented reality are also growing rapidly, increasing twentyfold by 2021 and representing 1% of total entertainment traffic.
• Faster broadband speeds. Globally, the average fixed broadband speed will almost double between 2016 and 2021, from 27.5 Mbps to 53 Mbps. In Spain, the average fixed broadband speed will almost double between 2016 and 2021, from 38 Mbps to 65 Mbps.
Other key findings of the report
1. – Growth of IP and Internet Traffic
• Global IP traffic is expected to reach 278 exabytes per month (96 exabytes per month in 2016) or 3.3 zettabytes per year in 2021 (1.2 zettabytes in 2016). In Spain, IP traffic will reach 3 exabytes per month (1 exabyte per month in 2016) or 37 exabytes per year in 2021 (12 exabytes per year in 2016).
• Peak internet traffic is growing faster than average internet traffic. Peak internet traffic will increase 4.6 times between 2016 and 2021 (35% year-on-year growth), reaching 4.3 petabytes per second in 2021, compared to average internet traffic which will increase 3.2 times (26% year-on-year growth) in the same period, reaching 717 terabytes per second in 2021. In Spain, peak internet traffic will grow at a year-on-year growth rate of 34% between 2016 and 2021, compared to average internet traffic which will increase by 24%.
2. – Increased Mobility
• In 2021, WiFi and mobile devices will generate 73% of all internet traffic (WiFi: 53%; mobile: 20%; fixed: 27%).
• In 2016, WiFi and mobile devices generated 62% of all IP traffic (WiFi: 52%; mobile: 10%; fixed: 38%).
• In Spain, WiFi and mobile devices will generate 77% of all internet traffic in 2021 (WiFi: 63%; mobile: 14%; fixed: 23%). In 2016, WiFi and mobile devices generated 67% of all IP traffic (WiFi: 61%; mobile: 6%; fixed: 33%).
3. – Growth of Public WiFi Hotspots.
• The number of public WiFi hotspots (including home WiFi hotspots) will increase sixfold globally between 2016 (94 million) and 2021 (541.6 million), with 526.2 million of those being in homes (85 million in 2016).
• The countries with the most public WiFi hotspots in 2021 will be: China (170 million), the USA (86 million), Japan (33 million), and France (30 million).
4. – High-definition TVs.
• In 2021, more than half (56%) of connected flat-screen TVs globally will be high-definition (4K), up from 15% in 2016.
• In 2021, there will be 663 million connected 4K flat-screen TVs installed/in service globally (85 million in 2016).
• In Spain, there will be 9 million connected 4K flat-screen TVs installed/in service in 2021 (57% of the total), compared to 966,000 in 2016 (12% of the total), representing a 56% year-on-year increase.
5. – Consumption of video content via the Internet in homes.
• The consumption of video content via the Internet (both through fixed and mobile connections) in homes is replacing traditional cable television subscriptions and conventional TV (a trend known as cord-cutting).
• Households following this trend generated an average of 117 GB of monthly traffic in 2016, 86% more than the 63 GB per month of a conventional household connected to the Internet in 2016. Conventional connected households will generate a global average of 155 GB of Internet traffic per month in 2021.
6. – End-user internet traffic is moving to the network edge.
• Globally, 35% of internet traffic will be carried over metro-to-metro networks (22% in 2016).
• Globally, 23% of internet traffic will traverse local backbones (without touching national backbones) in 2021 (20% in 2016), and 41% will traverse national backbones (58% in 2016).
7. – SD-WAN Traffic • Globally, SD-WAN (software-defined WAN) traffic will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 44%, compared to 5% for traditional WANs. • Global SD-WAN traffic will increase sixfold between 2016 and 2017, and will represent 25% of all WAN traffic in 2021. 8. – Increase in Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) Attacks • DDoS attacks can cripple networks by flooding servers and network devices with traffic from multiple IP sources. • DDoS attacks grew by 172% in 2016 and will increase 2.5 times to 3.1 million globally in 2021. • The average size of DDoS attacks has increased by 22%, which is practically the same rate as the year-over-year increase in internet traffic (29%). This size reaches almost 1.2 Gbps, enough to completely take most organizations offline. • The largest recorded peak increased in size by 60% year-over-year, meaning that DDoS attacks can represent up to 18% of a country's total internet traffic while they are occurring. IP traffic growth by region • Asia-Pacific: 101.7 Exabytes per month in 2021 (3.2 times higher; 26% year-over-year increase). • North America: 85 Exabytes per month in 2021 (2.5 times higher; 20% year-over-year increase). • Western Europe: 37.4 Exabytes per month in 2021 (2.7 times higher; 22% year-over-year increase). • Central Europe: 17.1 Exabytes per month in 2021 (a 2.75x increase; 22% year-over-year increase). • Latin America: 12.9 Exabytes per month in 2021 (a 2.6x increase; 21% year-over-year increase). • Middle East and Africa: 15.5 Exabytes per month in 2021 (a 5.8x increase; 42% year-over-year increase).
